Traders Poll answer – Gambler’s fallacy

For a fair coin, the answer sho uld be that both outcomes are equally lik ely.

If you Believed that the next flip is more likely to be tails because “tails is due to come up” this is whats is known as gambler’s fallacy, a great example of availability bias. i.e availability bias occurs when our estimates of probabilities are influenced by what is most “available” .

The purpose of the quiz is simple .

As traders assess new information, all observations must be appropriately weighted in prices or estimates of probabilities. If traders are unduly influenced by availability bias, the resulting estimates may not be accurate.  You must at all time in your approach be equally fair, balanced objective and dispassionate while gathering your analysis toward trading .


Gambler’s fallacy Research Links

Gambler\’s fallacy

psychwiki Availability Heuristic

Confirmation bias – wikipedia


Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s