Traders Poll answer – Gambler’s fallacy

For a fair coin, the answer sho uld be that both outcomes are equally lik ely.

If you Believed that the next flip is more likely to be tails because “tails is due to come up” this is whats is known as gambler’s fallacy, a great example of availability bias. i.e availability bias occurs when our estimates of probabilities are influenced by what is most “available” .

The purpose of the quiz is simple .

As traders assess new information, all observations must be appropriately weighted in prices or estimates of probabilities. If traders are unduly influenced by availability bias, the resulting estimates may not be accurate.  You must at all time in your approach be equally fair, balanced objective and dispassionate while gathering your analysis toward trading .

Gambler’s fallacy Research Links

Gambler\’s fallacy

psychwiki Availability Heuristic

Confirmation bias – wikipedia


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