Category Archives: A ) Eur/Usd

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Historic Net Short Eur/usd a Closer look :

With Euro SHORTS  continuing to be slaughtered by the bulls this  PDF  Clearly Shows from an options perspective just how wrong the market is and has been as we approach the March puts Expiry for 2012 .

http://www.cmegroup.com/education/files/FX-Options-Update.pdf

Get Prepared for the Eur/Drachma :

Id like to bring to your attention this much overlooked Bloomberg Interview from way back in Dec 2011 . When the EBS is ready for the eventual Greece default I think we as trader,s should be to .

Eur/usd Sunday Overview ” Johnny come lately” Bull Trap ?

This week the much talked about 1.4000 will be a pivotal fighting ground. If the bulls are going to lose ground here expect a sell-off into 1.3872/1.3837 daily support .

Following Portuguese PM resignation the last two trading days of the week have seen a more negative tone in the market . The country will now push towards early elections and a potential international financial bailout.

There are already rumours of an 80bln Euro bailout on the street this will shatter any confidence the market has in Portugal and a bailout now seems inevitable .

Are we in the misted of a Classic Bull trap ?


Just as The Euro broke the 1.4000 handle with conviction last week, will we now have the reserve come into effect triggering a classic ‚Äėbull trap.‚Äô
Longer term Bulls should not get complacent although the trend is still firmly up on all time frames and momentum is with the buyers with such negative sentiment slowly creeping back into the minds of traders another EU debt crisis could rear up again and snap the recent bullish Euro trend.

Freshly Squeezed view

This week the 1.4000 will be a pivotal fighting ground. If the bulls are going to lose ground here expect a sell-off into 1.3872/1.3837 daily support – this should provide the “real” fighting ground between the bull and bears –

Remain Bullish but cautious on a larger pullback as better value areas lay below as stated of the daily support . Until those areas are met I have no interest to conduct business . However I will keep a close eye on the Portuguese and other news related themes .

Although the has market remained resilient complacency is foremost ‚Äúweaker‚ÄĚ participants trapped may start to jump out of their initial positions causing the market to subsequently resume its correct, fundamentally-driven direction, As a result thus a bigger bull trap exacerbated from Johnny come lately,s¬† trapped in position above the 1.4000 Handle¬† . – a EU debt crisis could rear up again & any bounces of Daily Support must be closely monitored for potential Lower highs coming into formation without which would see potential¬† Profit quickly evaporated as the bull run comes to an end .



Eur/Usd Overview – End of Week Summary

Just a Quick Technical note on last Sundays overview Followed by some fundamental chatter . Time Permitting I,ll get some Forward Analysis out later this week other than to say,

Bulls created a strong foothold in the above 138.56 LEVEL and readied there assault on higher ground .

With another EU sovereign ratings downgrade Last week Рi.e Moody’s downgraded Portugal’s long-term government bond rating to A3 from A1 having Little or no effect confirming the strong buying presence in the market above 138.56 LEVEL .

The 1.4000 handle was broken for a move to resistance levels at 1.4180 – Eyes now turn to longer-term weekly high of 1.4400.

Fundamentals

The EU reached an agreement to expand the role of the EFSF this is effectively another Europe-wide bailout ” it permits the peripheral nations to refinance for the rest of the year without needing to auction their own debt in the public markets.”¬† an important development and would usually have been a key headline for the markets but over shadowed by current world events as¬† newswires have been dominated by Japanese nuclear fears as the possibility of a catastrophic disaster remains .

Freshly Squeezed Pips.

Eur/usd Overview (6th march)

The EUR/USD last week, did remain capped below the 138.56  level for some time indicating a serious level of resistance before breaking,  to then trudged higher toward the 1.4000


As stated on the 24th of Feb Eur/usd overview (24th Feb)“Momentum continues to build in favour of the uptrend, A key test will be the break of 1.3856, which mark the annual highs. A break here could open the floodgates towards the 1.4000 handle; a level easily achievable especially with recent ECB inflation concerns. “

If buyers are able to build a strong value area above here( 138.56 ) ,
then it is highly probable that higher prices will be seen over the next week with a possible pick up in momentum as the primary trend accelerates .

On the Flip side

Sellers will look to squeeze the market lower forcing out the ‚Äėbreakout‚Äô players and hopefully drop the market below the 138 handle . From here the next key support levels of 137.53/39 will look to be tested to see if it will send prices spiralling toward the 135.66 with potentially an overshoot to the 135.00
handle as long positions stop out.

 

Freshley Squeezed View

Continues to stick with the trend until it changes – approach continues to be to buy dips .